Rate-cut odds, who's long Yes, and where smart flow disagrees with the crowd.
by pollwatcher · 4 widgets · live Polymarket data via Polynyx · 2,227 views
| Title | Outcome | Smart Wallets | Net Flow | Avg Entry | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 6 | $31k | 66¢ | 23.6% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 4 | $14k | 16¢ | 58% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 4 | $11k | 62¢ | 37.5% |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 1 | $11k | 33¢ | 63.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | 3 | $10k | 71¢ | 21.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 2 | $10k | 69¢ | 30% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 6 | $9k | 91¢ | 12.5% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2 | $9k | 66¢ | 32.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 3 | $8k | 82¢ | 21% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 3 | $6k | 33¢ | 44.3% |
| Label | Health | Live Signal Count |
|---|---|---|
| Sharp money | benchmark | 48 |
| Stacked conviction | retired | 30 |
| Fresh sharp money | healthy | 46 |
| Heavy backing | underperforming | 26 |
| Prime sharps | underperforming | 23 |
| Deep favorites | retired | 22 |
| Unanimous sharps | retired | 10 |
| Early entry | underperforming | 31 |
| Late carry | retired | 9 |
| Liquid markets | healthy | 46 |
| Consensus mass | underperforming | 42 |
| Combos | retired | 4 |