Yes won. Smart money backed No (3 ranked wallets, average entry 93¢) and lost. Volume $508k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $547k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 47% · No 53% | $333k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 8% · No 93% | $299k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $234k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $228k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 41% · No 59% | $224k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $207k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $198k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| tja | Yes | $9k |
| theta-thunberg | Yes | $4k |
| cookedquail | Yes | $2k |
| 0xe1a3… | Yes | $2k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $726.41 |
| apmt | Yes | $678.80 |
| numb | Yes | $662.61 |
| HarpoonSignals | Yes | $654.62 |
| cmarx | Yes | $622.07 |
| oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e0 | Yes | $596.84 |
| jinsun... | Yes | $579.68 |
| Ogre-Magi | Yes | $573.87 |
380 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $29k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $14k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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