Gustavo Heide won. Smart money backed Hernan Casanova (6 ranked wallets, average entry 22¢) and lost. Volume $108k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 32% · IA 9% · IA, KS 7% | $4.2M |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 72% · R Senate, D House 23% · Republicans Sweep 6% | $2.5M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 95% · Republican Party 5% | $2.4M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 73% · Republican Party 28% | $2.3M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 76% · Ken Paxton (R) 25% | $1.5M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 80% · Mike Rogers (R) 22% | $1.4M |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A | Natus Vincere 46% · Team Falcons 54% | $887k |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A | FURIA 57% · FaZe 43% | $754k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| barbarossa2 | Gustavo Heide | $2k |
| marketmesh | Gustavo Heide | $1k |
| btna | Gustavo Heide | $1k |
| deskpol | Gustavo Heide | $787.89 |
| ggnw | Gustavo Heide | $635.75 |
| FRANK.THE.TANK | Gustavo Heide | $370.50 |
| 0x0a5d… | Gustavo Heide | $200.53 |
| 0x312d… | Gustavo Heide | $173.69 |
| tcjoness | Hernan Casanova | $168.13 |
| QWSDVSSDG | Gustavo Heide | $120 |
| DFNFDNHERGE | Gustavo Heide | $99.84 |
| CandleHammerDrums | Gustavo Heide | $91 |
183 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $8.0k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $6.6k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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