Luca Nardi won. Smart money backed Alexander Ritschard (7 ranked wallets, average entry 24¢) and lost. Volume $48k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh took +$1.3k on Luca Nardi from 60¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.4k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $3.5M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 45% · David Lisnard 12% · Édouard Philippe 8% | $1.1M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 27% · Gavin Newsom 8% · Ro Khanna 2% | $807k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 91% | $682k |
| Worlds 2026: Winner | Gen.G 63% · Bilibili Gaming 37% | $585k |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change 20% · 50+ bps decrease 1% | $582k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 5% · No 95% | $473k |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) | Bills 48% · Vikings 53% | $434k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $416k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Luca Nardi | $1k |
| CandleHammerDrums | Luca Nardi | $577.12 |
| LFP272 | Luca Nardi | $512.79 |
| 0xa0f2… | Luca Nardi | $312.76 |
| RN1 | Luca Nardi | $266.35 |
| Paul973973 | Luca Nardi | $159.26 |
| 0x4773… | Luca Nardi | $133.77 |
| MurkSniper | Luca Nardi | $103.19 |
| PokeG | Luca Nardi | $87.17 |
| omnibus-076daa | Luca Nardi | $81.41 |
| hhhizli | Luca Nardi | $78.57 |
| Gptball | Luca Nardi | $75.89 |
117 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $4.6k; the 46 biggest losers gave up $4.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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