Federico Aguilar Cardozo won. Smart money backed Thiago Agustin Pernas (1 ranked wallet, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $4.1k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 77% · R Senate, D House 18% · Republicans Sweep 5% | $7.2M |
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 34% · IA 11% · IA, KS 7% | $6.4M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 94% · Republican Party 6% | $4.0M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 77% · Republican Party 24% | $3.2M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 80% · Mike Rogers (R) 21% | $1.4M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 76% · Ken Paxton (R) 25% | $1.2M |
| Bears vs. Seahawks | Bears 39% · Seahawks 62% | $624k |
| Hawks vs. Pacers | Hawks 79% · Pacers 22% | $588k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| kobj | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $17.25 |
| AntiVaxxer | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $2.10 |
| xxxzibit | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $1.75 |
| 0x9be8… | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $1.50 |
| amonuss | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $1.31 |
| juanitooo12358 | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $1.15 |
| 0xe8d8… | Federico Aguilar Cardozo | $0.82 |
| hhhizli | Thiago Agustin Pernas | −$32.68 |
| 0x9527… | Thiago Agustin Pernas | −$31.39 |
| 0x9be8… | Thiago Agustin Pernas | −$2.80 |
| eFMBS | Thiago Agustin Pernas | −$2.30 |
| 0xc8f1… | Thiago Agustin Pernas | −$2 |
14 wallets held a position at the close. The 7 biggest winners took $26; the 7 biggest losers gave up $74. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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