Who is the smart money on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?”?

The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.

Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Geopolitics · live

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

No 89% · Yes 12%. Volume $40k, liquidity $23k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
89%
Yes
12%
Volume
$40k
Liquidity
$23k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

2 wallets · 143 known shares

Fihdrzgdd
entry — · all-time −$18k · win 46%
TheWindKnowsmyName
entry 77¢ · all-time −$46k · win 56%

No

1 wallets · 20 known shares

Olcanwhale
entry — · all-time +$53k · win 77%

More Geopolitics markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?” on Polymarket?: No 89% · Yes 12%, on $40k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

live

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

88.5%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes14388%
No2012%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity	24h change
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes 1% · No 99%	$236k	$74k	-1.7%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes 72% · No 28%	$191k	$98k	0%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes 99% · No 1%	$157k	$57k	0.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes 12% · No 89%	$151k	$322k	1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes 6% · No 95%	$114k	$486k	0%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 93% · No 7%	$99k	$77k	2.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes 10% · No 91%	$96k	$43k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes 100% · No 1%	$71k	$55k	2.8%

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 11¢ask 12¢spread 1¢mid 12¢

SizeBid

AskSize

99611¢

12¢1.1k

1.9k10¢

13¢2.2k

4.8k9¢

14¢1.1k

1.1k8¢

15¢62

5117¢

16¢160

8986¢

17¢57

3.1k5¢

18¢141

4.0k4¢

50¢250

5.4k3¢

51¢58

9.7k2¢

59¢1.2k

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
Animalmother	Yes	8k	12¢	$1k	−$933.82
DerDon	Yes	2k	9¢	$136.46	$99k
0xc7d0…1f8a	Yes	2k			$339k
0x279c…2b82	Yes	924			$8k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	833			$193k
Gl4d	Yes	700			$36k
0xde28…2115	Yes	499	12¢	$59.04	$2k
HerrieDavis	Yes	410	10¢	$41.01	$325k
GarthBroadmore	Yes	405	8¢	$32.08	$6k
SuperTests	Yes	203			$17k
gorovi	No	13k	85¢	$8k	$31k
0x8b4b…541b	No	2k			−$198k

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction

1US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$14k
2US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$2k