Yes won. Smart money backed No (3 ranked wallets, average entry 63¢) and lost. Volume $115k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
hidv took +$2.1k on Yes from 71¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.3k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 72% · Anthropic 26% · OpenAI 2% | $33k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 62% · November 11 11% · November 12 6% | $17k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 9% · No 91% | $14k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $13k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? | Yes 61% · No 39% | $12k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $8k |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | Google 100% · OpenAI 0% · DeepSeek 0% | $7k |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | DeepSeek 99% · Tencent 0% · OpenAI 0% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hidv | Yes | $2k |
| 0xf08c… | Yes | $2k |
| whoareyou1003 | Yes | $912.58 |
| Rumpelstiltskin | Yes | $892.19 |
| 0x6c67… | Yes | $745.99 |
| 0x47c1… | Yes | $551.13 |
| wpj | Yes | $437.94 |
| 0x67ba… | Yes | $430.03 |
| Leclerc04 | Yes | $352.26 |
| hell0pia | Yes | $331.68 |
| antistatic | Yes | $304.46 |
| 0xc091… | Yes | $296 |
431 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $12k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $11k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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