Yes won. Smart money backed No (5 ranked wallets, average entry 38¢) and lost. Volume $142k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
sakuralover took +$1.1k on Yes from 72¢; the biggest loser gave up $499.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 77% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 3% | $35k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 81% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 9% · 2 2% | $14k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 88% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 43% · November 11 24% | $7k |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? | November 12 35% · No release by November 30 15% | $7k |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $7k |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 35% · Alibaba 24% · Z.ai 20% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| sakuralover | Yes | $1k |
| obeymesubjects | Yes | $477.22 |
| mindeirs | Yes | $345.97 |
| 0x5637… | Yes | $223.84 |
| sqaolkytrpo | Yes | $212.39 |
| ilovecarrots | Yes | $89.48 |
| aussietoken | Yes | $84.95 |
| PiMaak | Yes | $70.95 |
| 0x5007… | Yes | $55.71 |
| KenneyG | Yes | $45.73 |
| BLESS24 | Yes | $45.18 |
| 0x8144… | Yes | $45 |
224 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $3.3k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $3.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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