Yes won. Smart money backed No (6 ranked wallets, average entry 6¢) and lost. Volume $685k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Batundi took +$724 on Yes from 82¢; the biggest loser gave up $4.2k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 63% · November 11 20% · November 9 7% | $17k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 73% · Anthropic 26% · OpenAI 3% | $16k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 9% · No 91% | $14k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $13k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? | Yes 53% · No 47% | $10k |
| #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | Google 100% · OpenAI 0% · DeepSeek 0% | $7k |
| #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of November 2? | DeepSeek 99% · Tencent 0% · OpenAI 0% | $7k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Batundi | Yes | $723.92 |
| ICTRADING | Yes | $671.77 |
| mindeirs | Yes | $562.00 |
| calm.rabbit | Yes | $479.12 |
| autocurate | Yes | $455.15 |
| dzP3 | Yes | $443.17 |
| enjoyevery | Yes | $390.37 |
| luckyshoe | Yes | $390.31 |
| 4e2fbc2acf | Yes | $325.68 |
| 0xhanxyz | Yes | $274.79 |
| sqaolkytrpo | Yes | $270.94 |
| Linslav | Yes | $250.20 |
479 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $7.9k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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