No 88% · Yes 12%. Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 4¢). Volume $96k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
mindeirs took +$268 on No from 89¢; the biggest loser gave up $682.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 4% | $25k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 81% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes 97% · No 4% | $13k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 9% · 2 2% | $12k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 43% · November 11 23% | $7k |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $7k |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 35% · Alibaba 21% · Z.ai 20% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mindeirs | No | $267.68 |
| stpocin | No | $119.68 |
| smallf | No | $99.89 |
| Peregrines | No | $96.59 |
| Bumblebee101 | No | $47.92 |
| supertrader0930 | Yes | $45.80 |
| Tourte-chaude | No | $42.01 |
| GMbullishmans | No | $38.70 |
| ICTRADING | No | $34.77 |
| MaxLecter | No | $26.45 |
| ygg5 | No | $25.49 |
| SamsClub-VIP | No | $19.50 |
152 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.2k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.7k. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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