Yes won. Smart money backed No (10 ranked wallets, average entry 58¢) and lost. Volume $6.3k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $58k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 7? | 20°C 49% · 19°C 28% · 21°C 16% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 51% · 27°C 34% · 29°C 15% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Houston on November 7? | 78-79°F 44% · 76-77°F 37% · 80-81°F 13% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in NYC on November 7? | 60-61°F 46% · 62-63°F 38% · 64-65°F 9% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 7? | 20°C 56% · 19°C 41% · 18°C 5% | $10k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xeb1b… | Yes | $708.57 |
| Bilberry | Yes | $243.05 |
| 241532532432 | Yes | $196.52 |
| AuspiciousWolf | Yes | $147.34 |
| polyweatheryuan | Yes | $59.59 |
| e4s6r7.pm | Yes | $33.32 |
| Thermomenal | Yes | $32.83 |
| 0x5fc1… | Yes | $26.46 |
| woff1236578 | Yes | $23.50 |
| deferredgratification | Yes | $22.38 |
| mashuuuu | Yes | $20.68 |
| Walid555 | Yes | $19.82 |
90 wallets held a position at the close. The 46 biggest winners took $1.8k; the 44 biggest losers gave up $633. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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