Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 19¢) and lost. Volume $45k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes 63% · No 38% | $33k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 2? | 31°C 78% · 30°C 29% · 32°C 2% | $22k |
| Highest temperature in Munich on November 2? | 8°C 55% · 7°C 35% · 9°C 12% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Miami on November 2? | 80-81°F 49% · 82-83°F 44% · 78-79°F 3% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Helsinki on November 2? | 9°C 52% · 8°C 38% · 10°C 2% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 2? | 19°C 100% · 20°C 0% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Paris on November 2? | 12°C 20% · 10°C 8% · 13°C 2% | $10k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| macao.weather | Yes | $664.29 |
| 1802 | Yes | $509.01 |
| weatheringwithI | Yes | $225.04 |
| 0x9418… | Yes | $199.13 |
| polyinit-354-8272f3 | Yes | $154.40 |
| CreamCream1215 | Yes | $141.80 |
| Lodyesushy | Yes | $135.57 |
| 0xc616… | Yes | $131.20 |
| Frog-Prince | Yes | $116.07 |
| -Hina- | Yes | $103.51 |
| n5buqorhxxhf | Yes | $102.45 |
| asdfasdf111 | Yes | $100.74 |
239 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $4.3k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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