No won. Smart money backed Yes (15 ranked wallets, average entry 44¢) and lost. Volume $11k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 62% · No 38% | $58k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 7? | 20°C 57% · 19°C 30% · 21°C 8% | $16k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? | Yes 89% · No 12% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 55% · 27°C 25% · 29°C 19% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in NYC on November 7? | 62-63°F 50% · 60-61°F 41% · 64-65°F 7% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 7? | 20°C 52% · 19°C 41% · 18°C 3% | $9k |
| Highest temperature in Houston on November 7? | 76-77°F 38% · 80-81°F 12% · 74-75°F 7% | $9k |
| Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 7? | 66-67°F 45% · 64-65°F 36% · 68-69°F 9% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xedbe… | No | $219.96 |
| pangloz99 | No | $184.60 |
| 0x3dd1… | No | $128.98 |
| Qatalyst | No | $92.22 |
| zpi23748 | No | $81.35 |
| 0xe7c6… | No | $60.04 |
| 0x3308… | Yes | $55.19 |
| Z7dk3 | No | $45.69 |
| HotWeatherGirl | No | $34.90 |
| 0x567 | No | $34.57 |
| 241532532432 | No | $31.73 |
| 0xeb1b… | No | $31.24 |
135 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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