Yes won. Smart money backed No (16 ranked wallets, average entry 75¢) and lost. Volume $7.6k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 4? | 18°C 95% · 19°C 1% · 17°C 1% | $25k |
| Highest temperature in Lucknow on November 4? | 30°C 52% · 31°C 49% · 32°C 1% | $13k |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 4? | Yes 30% · No 70% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 4? | 28°C 49% · 27°C 34% · 29°C 13% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on November 4? | 28°C 60% · 27°C 37% · 26°C 3% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 4? | 20°C 68% · 19°C 1% · 18°C 0% | $10k |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Yes 0% · No 100% | $10k |
| Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 4? | 18°C 50% · 17°C 45% · 16°C 5% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| OnlyLuckNoBrain | Yes | $797.69 |
| WrongBy1Degree | Yes | $581.77 |
| mashuuuu | Yes | $231.16 |
| Qatalyst | Yes | $176.14 |
| mdja | Yes | $89.20 |
| yrnmv | Yes | $74.33 |
| weather12345 | Yes | $56.29 |
| 0xe9e8… | Yes | $37.27 |
| 0xe28d… | Yes | $28.92 |
| 0x4fdf… | Yes | $23.35 |
| 0x5f3e… | Yes | $18.16 |
| Cyclone. | Yes | $17.98 |
87 wallets held a position at the close. The 29 biggest winners took $2.2k; the 58 biggest losers gave up $2.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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