Yes won. Smart money backed No (10 ranked wallets, average entry 45¢) and lost. Volume $11k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 54% · No 47% | $35k |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 6? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $19k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Highest temperature in Moscow on November 6? | 2°C 85% · 3°C 18% · 4°C 2% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 6? | 20°C 99% · 21°C 3% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on November 6? | 72-73°F 42% · 74-75°F 31% · 70-71°F 20% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Chengdu on November 6? | 20°C 99% · 21°C 1% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in London on November 6? | 11°C 52% · 12°C 25% · 10°C 17% | $10k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| sbel | Yes | $141.17 |
| Weather-Guru | Yes | $96 |
| Tallguy2527 | Yes | $74.29 |
| AppleCider22 | Yes | $72.55 |
| TakeYourTemperature | Yes | $67.31 |
| hello.67 | Yes | $64.90 |
| 0xeb1b… | Yes | $64.00 |
| PredatorXx | Yes | $62.67 |
| twobonclay | Yes | $51.59 |
| yellowhp | Yes | $47.80 |
| Foratata | Yes | $45.12 |
| 0xcaf5… | Yes | $44.65 |
168 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.6k; the 48 biggest losers gave up $990. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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