Yes won. Smart money backed No (10 ranked wallets, average entry 56¢) and lost. Volume $8.1k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
WrongBy1Degree took +$856 on Yes from 33¢; the biggest loser gave up $167.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $3.5M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| BreakTheBank | $7.9M | $4.1M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Highest temperature in Chongqing on November 15? | 17°C 71% · 18°C 24% · 16°C 0% | $32k |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | Yes 14% · No 86% | $14k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 15? | 16°C 84% · 17°C 16% | $11k |
| Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 15? | 10°C 54% · 11°C 29% · 9°C 17% | $8k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $8k |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $8k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 15? | 19°C 60% · 20°C 30% · 18°C 9% | $7k |
| Highest temperature in Lucknow on November 15? | 29°C 41% · 28°C 7% · 31°C 6% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| WrongBy1Degree | Yes | $856.33 |
| 0x65f7… | Yes | $634.76 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | $150.25 |
| 241532532432 | Yes | $117.98 |
| 0xb56c… | Yes | $95.54 |
| 0x6128… | Yes | $65.81 |
| OnlyLuckNoBrain | Yes | $59.23 |
| monroemichael | Yes | $57.10 |
| TakeYourTemperature | Yes | $39.92 |
| 0x66h4...w1h61k | Yes | $36.22 |
| Descubra | Yes | $32.00 |
| ermi2026 | Yes | $25.57 |
139 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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