Yes won. Smart money backed No (9 ranked wallets, average entry 30¢) and lost. Volume $12k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $58k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 6? | 30°C 100% · 31°C 0% | $22k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $16k |
| Highest temperature in Paris on November 6? | 12°C 49% · 11°C 30% · 13°C 16% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Munich on November 6? | 6°C 22% · 5°C 16% · 3°C 9% | $13k |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on November 6? | 72-73°F 47% · 70-71°F 28% · 68-69°F 13% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Miami on November 6? | 86-87°F 63% · 84-85°F 34% · 82-83°F 2% | $9k |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on November 7? | 28°C 45% · 27°C 42% · 29°C 8% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xeb1b… | Yes | $523.05 |
| Thermomenal | Yes | $192.31 |
| blockpwx | Yes | $144.83 |
| 241532532432 | Yes | $76.22 |
| AuspiciousWolf | Yes | $70.17 |
| 0x9506… | Yes | $67.23 |
| TakeYourTemperature | Yes | $62.27 |
| BeresBalu | Yes | $55.59 |
| yellowhp | Yes | $54.08 |
| 0x8443… | Yes | $49.55 |
| 0x973 | Yes | $48.76 |
| 515669691 | Yes | $48.30 |
150 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.8k; the 58 biggest losers gave up $1.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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