Yes won. Smart money backed No (5 ranked wallets, average entry 10¢) and lost. Volume $11.8M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $524k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 95% · No 5% | $280k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 74% · No 27% | $262k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 43% · No 57% | $219k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $212k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $192k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes 86% · No 14% | $180k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $164k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| inrock30 | Yes | $34k |
| 0xc1db… | Yes | $11k |
| 0x8d4b… | Yes | $10k |
| bullishkirby | Yes | $9k |
| Shovelface | Yes | $8k |
| 0xd640… | Yes | $6k |
| 0xa585… | Yes | $5k |
| mahdi72 | Yes | $5k |
| 0x9794… | Yes | $5k |
| KriteriTraderJoe | Yes | $4k |
| dddad1 | Yes | $4k |
| 0x4e3d… | Yes | $3k |
2,016 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $164k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $138k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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