Aren Baybars won. Smart money backed Mario Mansilla Diez (11 ranked wallets, average entry 40¢) and lost. Volume $149k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Senate Election Winner | Scott Colom (D) 77% · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 22% | $2.4M |
| Nebraska Senate Election Winner | Pete Ricketts (R) 100% · Independent 1% | $1.6M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | Byron Donalds 1% · John McEntee 0% · Tim Scott 0% | $1.4M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 26% · Josh Shapiro 5% · James Talarico 3% | $1.3M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 76% · No change 24% · 50+ bps increase 2% | $1.1M |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola (D) 95% · Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 4% | $886k |
| Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club | Draw (Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club) 94% · Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 5% | $642k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 16% · No 85% | $477k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| kuwkuw | Aren Baybars | $16k |
| eweqewweqerwqrewqrwerqweqrwerqwer | Aren Baybars | $5k |
| 0x7a4b…66fc | Aren Baybars | $5k |
| crazyoddslover | Aren Baybars | $4k |
| 0x9d8e… | Aren Baybars | $2k |
| 0x351f… | Aren Baybars | $853.84 |
| 0x18b0… | Aren Baybars | $681.22 |
| fdsfdssqf | Aren Baybars | $238.86 |
| CandleHammerDrums | Aren Baybars | $81.78 |
| ciganskiytabor | Aren Baybars | $73.75 |
| rocket2themoon | Aren Baybars | $67.01 |
| bottingggg | Aren Baybars | $46.38 |
70 wallets held a position at the close. The 22 biggest winners took $33k; the 48 biggest losers gave up $17k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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