Sera Nishimoto won. Smart money backed Maiko Uchijima (3 ranked wallets, average entry 85¢) and lost. Volume $19k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 78% · R Senate, D House 18% · Republicans Sweep 5% | $7.2M |
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None 34% · IA 10% · IA, KS 7% | $5.7M |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 96% · Republican Party 5% | $3.6M |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 79% · Republican Party 22% | $2.9M |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 79% · Mike Rogers (R) 22% | $1.3M |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 76% · Ken Paxton (R) 25% | $988k |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02? | Yes 35% · No 65% | $987k |
| Bears vs. Seahawks | Bears 39% · Seahawks 62% | $618k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| CandleHammerDrums | Sera Nishimoto | $41.40 |
| vardaman-bundren | Sera Nishimoto | $24.81 |
| 0x0472… | Sera Nishimoto | $19.82 |
| 0x5974… | Sera Nishimoto | $10.01 |
| Luckycat1 | Sera Nishimoto | $3.23 |
| 0xaba7… | Sera Nishimoto | $2.20 |
| 0xaa08… | Maiko Uchijima | −$10k |
| VTL777 | Maiko Uchijima | −$2k |
| CandleHammerDrums | Maiko Uchijima | −$412.47 |
| berlinskies | Maiko Uchijima | −$119.99 |
| big-bird1 | Maiko Uchijima | −$104.65 |
| iloveu4ever | Maiko Uchijima | −$68.69 |
25 wallets held a position at the close. The 6 biggest winners took $101; the 19 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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