Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 16¢) and lost. Volume $127k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 72% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 23–November 29 6% | $26k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 70% · Anthropic 28% · OpenAI 3% | $19k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 54% · Anthropic 37% · OpenAI 5% | $16k |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $13k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 64% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 9–November 15 10% | $11k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 11 30% · November 10 29% · No release by November 30 10% | $8k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $7k |
| Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of November? | MiniMax 51% · Google 44% | $5k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xTism | Yes | $1k |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $712.34 |
| 0x6c67… | Yes | $517.52 |
| rewardbots | Yes | $495.08 |
| Neumann97 | Yes | $487.39 |
| newbignewsagencypro | Yes | $389.35 |
| 0xc091… | Yes | $354.41 |
| 0xbc59… | Yes | $260.58 |
| makegood | Yes | $251.31 |
| Mosaics | Yes | $229.38 |
| 4ts3hc | Yes | $217.86 |
| 0x6196… | Yes | $148.04 |
195 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $6.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $3.2k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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