Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Elections · live

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Yes 78% · No 22%. Volume $68k, liquidity $1.5k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

Yes
78%
No
22%
Volume
$68k
Liquidity
$1.5k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

0 wallets

No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet holds this side.

No

1 wallets · 10 known shares

asdf112d
entry 36¢ · all-time +$543 · win 47%

More Elections markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?” on Polymarket?: Yes 78% · No 22%, on $68k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Election odds Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

live

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

78.4%

Yes

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

No10100%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Elections markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?	None 23% · IA, KS 12% · IA 11%	$7.6M	$54.7M
Which party will win the House in 2026?	Democratic Party 95% · Republican Party 6%	$1.8M	$15.9M
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81% · Mike Rogers (R) 20%	$1.8M	$827k
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms	Democrats Sweep 71% · Republicans Sweep 5%	$832k	$10.3M
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Pete Ricketts (R) 73% · Independent 28%	$772k	$398k
Texas Senate Election Winner	James Talarico (D) 70% · Ken Paxton (R) 30%	$570k	$2.0M
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?	Democratic Party 72% · Republican Party 28%	$495k	$6.7M
Next French Presidential Election	David Lisnard 18% · Christine Lagarde 5%	$466k	$319k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 66¢ask 90¢spread 24¢mid 78¢

SizeBid

AskSize

20066¢

90¢65

3066¢

90¢184

1266¢

90¢60

1.0k66¢

91¢5

865¢

92¢60

562¢

92¢1.0k

47062¢

92¢186

20062¢

96¢20

5061¢

96¢150

860¢

96¢1.0k

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
aenews2	Yes	3k	59¢	$2k	$2.4M
balthazar	Yes	3k	62¢	$2k	$1.2M
C03B	Yes	713	67¢	$474.27	$344k
0x3ad1…b4c5	Yes	557	67¢	$370.80	−$13k
0x258382	Yes	166	59¢	$97.90	−$240.96
liq2	Yes	150	68¢	$102.30	$11k
navber	Yes	120	70¢	$55.92	$671.41
0x43cb…84df	Yes	118	68¢	$80.21	$83k
title1	Yes	90	53¢	$47.94	$32k
zeitfi-vault-v2	Yes	80	65¢	$51.98	$2k
0xa5ef39	No	6k			$0
anoin123	No	714	32¢	$227.21	−$4.6M

Smart-money conviction · Elections

Smart-money conviction

1Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$135k
2Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$66k
3Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$49k
4Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$46k
5Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$23k
6Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$18k
7Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$23k
82026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$11k
92026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$12k
10Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?$13k