No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 80¢) and lost. Volume $413k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
KrackenSruster took +$5.2k on No from 67¢; the biggest loser gave up $3.0k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $3.5M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| BreakTheBank | $9.1M | $4.1M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 9% · No 92% | $284k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $167k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $148k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $137k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 33% · No 67% | $136k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $105k |
| Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $88k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster | No | $5k |
| Moonshot1019 | No | $5k |
| 101456 | No | $1k |
| henos | No | $557.45 |
| Annihilation | No | $449.59 |
| melonmanm | No | $378.02 |
| tr1000 | No | $317.57 |
| controls | No | $308.86 |
| serferer | No | $307.41 |
| Outsmarter | No | $301.70 |
| Newshound | No | $295.81 |
| RogerFed | No | $278.22 |
610 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $20k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $26k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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