No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 13¢) and lost. Volume $134k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $750k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $276k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $247k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $204k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 93% · No 8% | $189k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $174k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $163k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $163k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hugecaulk | No | $1k |
| SeniorLaghetto | No | $726.06 |
| Egolod1 | No | $604 |
| timeistmoney | No | $414.53 |
| JokerTheClown | No | $347.13 |
| enri.hl | No | $249.17 |
| Dandus1975 | No | $246.97 |
| 0x2a5f… | No | $155.73 |
| gambler925 | No | $153.87 |
| 0x157e…227e | No | $137.86 |
| JsonStatham | No | $129.25 |
| 0xc2f9… | No | $114.82 |
133 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $5.1k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $4.9k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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