No won. Smart money backed Yes (14 ranked wallets, average entry 79¢) and lost. Volume $892k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 12% · No 88% | $271k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $240k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 94% · No 6% | $219k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $207k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 75% · No 25% | $191k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 9% · No 92% | $168k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $149k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $121k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 52centis | No | $32k |
| Moonshot1019 | No | $8k |
| plshelpme10 | No | $4k |
| headsh0t | No | $3k |
| mjordantmac | Yes | $2k |
| Kuukskes | No | $2k |
| Laurenman | Yes | $2k |
| scorp0212 | No | $2k |
| justT | No | $1k |
| 0x7272… | No | $1k |
| piyasayapici | No | $1k |
| iNeedMoreDollars | No | $1k |
300 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $69k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $47k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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