No won. Smart money backed Yes (16 ranked wallets, average entry 27¢) and lost. Volume $1.5M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Moonshot1019 took +$3.6k on No from 74¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.9k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $270k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 92% · No 9% | $241k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 14% · No 87% | $148k |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | Yes 32% · No 69% | $84k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $76k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 36% · No 64% | $70k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $61k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 61% · No 39% | $60k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Moonshot1019 | No | $4k |
| RogerFed | No | $3k |
| essence19910705 | No | $2k |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $2k |
| 0xcca9… | No | $1k |
| 0x5144… | Yes | $677.23 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $657.63 |
| WUBVWBOIBVWG | No | $603.34 |
| peterfromfamilyguy | Yes | $593.04 |
| 0x1fb5… | No | $556.58 |
| Myway | No | $513.92 |
| GabiFP | No | $498.39 |
1,701 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $26k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $17k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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