Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Markets · live

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

No 95% · Yes 5%. Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 9¢). Volume $7.2k, liquidity $9.8k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
95%
Yes
5%
Volume
$7.2k
Liquidity
$9.8k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

2 wallets · 2,050 known shares

e46m3whale
entry — · all-time +$958k · win 61%
SteveTheFish
entry 9¢ · all-time +$49k · win 68%

No

2 wallets · 254 known shares

Hauchnwhale
entry — · all-time +$308k · win 43%
sadfsadf
entry 90¢ · all-time +$215 · win 50%

More Markets markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” on Polymarket?: No 95% · Yes 5%, on $7.2k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?: Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 9¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

live

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

95%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes2k89%
No25411%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Markets markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap	$1.75–$2.0T 33% · $2.0–$2.25T 20% · $1.5–$1.75T 17%	$143k	$158k
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$39k	$40k
Anthropic IPO Date	November 20 24% · November 19 20% · No IPO by November 30, 2026 20%	$33k	$25k
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?	SpaceX 57% · Anthropic 42% · OpenAI 0%	$25k	$196k
Largest Company end of December 2026?	NVIDIA 56% · Alphabet 1% · Microsoft 0%	$19k	$277k
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap	1.5T+ 38% · No IPO by December 31, 2027 23% · 750B–1T 4%	$17k	$46k
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?	Yes 3% · No 97%	$14k	$60k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes 25% · No 75%	$14k	$16k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 3¢ask 7¢spread 4¢mid 5¢

SizeBid

AskSize

403¢

7¢55

9502¢

12¢35

9.1k1¢

13¢85

14¢50

15¢5

18¢60

19¢100

24¢359

34¢30

44¢30

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	All-time P&L
e46m3	Yes	1k	$958k
SteveTheFish	Yes	978	$49k
TouchDownThana	Yes	600	$17k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	527	$193k
balthazar	Yes	510	$1.2M
marcopolosrhino	Yes	478	−$634.19
SnapElectionAvoider	Yes	453	$236k
0xec4c…9c73	Yes	340	$23.75
0x43cb…84df	Yes	221	$83k
crossFiter	Yes	55	$543.56
0xa5ef39	No	5k	$0
0x9b02…826a	No	280	$2k

Smart-money conviction · Markets

Smart-money conviction

1Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$2k
2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?$3k
3Will GameStop acquire eBay?$3k
4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?$2k
5Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?$1k
6Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1k
7Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?$1k
8Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1k
9Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$1k
10Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$1k