Yes won. Smart money backed No (5 ranked wallets, average entry 11¢) and lost. Volume $527k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Popopolly took +$4.5k on Yes from 93¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.7k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 2% | $41k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $13k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $9k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 10% · 2 2% | $9k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 44% · November 11 24% | $8k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $8k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Popopolly | Yes | $5k |
| MoonLambo1205 | Yes | $2k |
| zee3617 | Yes | $983.08 |
| 0xb522… | Yes | $574.47 |
| wwf123 | Yes | $376.60 |
| wwf001 | Yes | $343.81 |
| bmtr | Yes | $242.19 |
| SteveBlame | Yes | $231.95 |
| ggdajiba | Yes | $204.96 |
| 0xe1be… | Yes | $201.47 |
| wsbwxf | Yes | $187.13 |
| yanping | Yes | $166.33 |
838 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $13k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $8.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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