No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $25k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Hugin-og-Munin took +$7 on No from 77¢; the biggest loser gave up $8.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 75% · Anthropic 22% · OpenAI 3% | $43k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 56% · November 11 22% · November 9 8% | $23k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $22k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $17k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $12k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 80% · November 16–November 22 14% · November 2–November 8 4% | $11k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 65% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $11k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 14% · No 86% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Hugin-og-Munin | No | $6.86 |
| James-Claude | No | $3.60 |
| molodoyy | No | $1.93 |
| akko123 | Yes | $1.28 |
| gtejada | Yes | −$8.26 |
| 0x8193… | Yes | −$5.00 |
| vonofff41 | Yes | −$4.81 |
| 0xd93d… | Yes | −$4.68 |
| 0x652b… | Yes | −$1.92 |
| 0x278f… | Yes | −$1.22 |
| 0x5a79… | Yes | −$1.10 |
| simheg | Yes | −$1 |
17 wallets held a position at the close. The 4 biggest winners took $14; the 13 biggest losers gave up $33. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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