Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 25¢) and lost. Volume $216k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
ELEZIOR-TV took +$259 on Yes from 84¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.9k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 2% | $41k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $13k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $10k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 10% · 2 2% | $9k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 44% · November 11 24% | $8k |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? | November 12 36% · No release by November 30 9% · November 13 1% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| ELEZIOR-TV | Yes | $259.36 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $192.65 |
| narua | Yes | $125.12 |
| c4vdl4g | Yes | $120.79 |
| backd | Yes | $118.18 |
| RolandDrump | Yes | $116.25 |
| Maxpnlmaker | Yes | $112.90 |
| 0x23db… | No | $105.07 |
| cedriss | Yes | $103.54 |
| duref | No | $78.43 |
| ZalphaAI | Yes | $71.95 |
| mr.fig | Yes | $68.77 |
287 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.5k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $9.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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