No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 4¢) and lost. Volume $329k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Contentious-Dinnerdate took +$1.3k on No from 55¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.7k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 2% | $41k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $13k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $10k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 10% · 2 2% | $9k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 44% · November 11 24% | $8k |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? | November 12 36% · No release by November 30 9% · November 13 1% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | $1k |
| peterfromfamilyguy | No | $1k |
| wqujvj | No | $1k |
| Raskell | No | $736.82 |
| rpontici | No | $730.52 |
| WalkStreetIn | No | $690.01 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $651.70 |
| BigDataEnergy | No | $503.54 |
| Linslav | No | $488.44 |
| sqaolkytrpo | No | $459.88 |
| NotTheSharpestTool | No | $458.52 |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $426.22 |
525 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $15k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $8.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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