No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 6¢) and lost. Volume $597. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 70% · Anthropic 28% · OpenAI 3% | $33k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 72% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 23–November 29 6% | $27k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 54% · Anthropic 36% · OpenAI 6% | $18k |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $13k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 48% · November 16–November 22 19% · November 9–November 15 15% | $8k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $7k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 17% · No release by November 30 10% · November 13 8% | $7k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Carabao | No | $3 |
| myfrenda | No | $2.24 |
| AJSV2 | No | $2 |
| LonelyScissors | Yes | $1.04 |
| decoherence | Yes | −$5 |
| navber | Yes | −$3.57 |
| Carabao | Yes | −$2 |
| summonair | Yes | −$1 |
8 wallets held a position at the close. The 4 biggest winners took $8; the 4 biggest losers gave up $12. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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