No won. Smart money backed Yes (4 ranked wallets, average entry 9¢) and lost. Volume $846k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| 0xcdcc… | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $24k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 64% · November 2–November 8 15% · November 16–November 22 13% | $22k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $13k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 39% · November 11 19% · November 9 7% | $11k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $10k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 71% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 9–November 15 8% | $8k |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 95% · No 5% | $6k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $5k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x2ca9… | No | $1k |
| Knowing-Lacquerware-Hospitalization | No | $1k |
| nibblemaxxing | No | $443.71 |
| cedriss | No | $369.36 |
| QUUN | No | $354.65 |
| cash-machine | No | $288.52 |
| bigli | No | $137.66 |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | No | $127.04 |
| asian-chick | No | $105.65 |
| re4der | No | $99.60 |
| frankfika | No | $98.13 |
| MooseDragonSZND | No | $90.78 |
568 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $5.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $8.4k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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