No 97% · Yes 3%. Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 36¢). Volume $220k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
BitcoinRay took +$1.7k on No from 70¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.3k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 75% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 4% | $35k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 81% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 9% · 2 2% | $14k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 88% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 43% · November 11 24% | $7k |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $7k |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 35% · Alibaba 24% · Z.ai 20% | $6k |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? | November 12 26% · No release by November 30 15% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| BitcoinRay | No | $2k |
| 8396239287 | No | $1k |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | $880 |
| 0xa0d3… | No | $489.56 |
| i7u6tyegrfgnhtyrg | No | $465.40 |
| aikko | No | $421.98 |
| delphilo | No | $337.31 |
| graviarbwsg | No | $289.53 |
| 165198989 | No | $243.37 |
| ICTRADING | No | $188.16 |
| residual | No | $180.89 |
| djl605 | No | $164.88 |
592 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $9.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $13k. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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