No won. Smart money backed Yes (15 ranked wallets, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $1.0M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Jackfred took +$27 on No from 100¢; the biggest loser gave up $255.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 75% · Anthropic 22% · OpenAI 3% | $42k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $22k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 47% · November 11 22% · November 9 7% | $22k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $17k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? | Yes 49% · No 51% | $12k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 29% · OpenAI 4% | $11k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 80% · November 16–November 22 14% · November 2–November 8 4% | $10k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 16% · No 85% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Jackfred | No | $27.11 |
| win-at-all-cost | No | $8.38 |
| JordanMooney | No | $7.57 |
| GingerMcKenna | No | $6.50 |
| i18z | No | $1.67 |
| nicknat | No | $1.52 |
| fadale | No | $1.44 |
| phyphy | No | $1.30 |
| xinqqq | No | $1.26 |
| influenz.eth | No | $1.23 |
| shshh | No | $1.22 |
| fomole | No | $1.21 |
115 wallets held a position at the close. The 26 biggest winners took $72; the 60 biggest losers gave up $920. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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