Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Markets · live

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 74% · No 27%. Smart money leans Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 58¢). Volume $31k, liquidity $5.7k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

Yes
74%
No
27%
Volume
$31k
Liquidity
$5.7k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

7 wallets · 9,732 known shares

Hauchnwhale
entry 61¢ · all-time +$308k · win 43%
e46m3whale
entry — · all-time +$958k · win 61%
m3t64 - 815whale
entry 46¢ · all-time +$71k · win 49%
rabbit007
entry 64¢ · all-time +$46k · win 49%
chaosj88
entry 46¢ · all-time +$23k · win 84%
GenaTheBondKilIer
entry 22¢ · all-time +$41k · win 54%

More Markets markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” on Polymarket?: Yes 74% · No 27%, on $31k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?: Smart money leans Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 58¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

live

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

73.5%

Yes

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes10k100%
No350%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Markets markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap	$1.75–$2.0T 33% · $2.0–$2.25T 20% · $1.5–$1.75T 17%	$143k	$158k
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$39k	$40k
Anthropic IPO Date	November 20 24% · November 19 20% · No IPO by November 30, 2026 20%	$33k	$25k
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?	SpaceX 57% · Anthropic 42% · OpenAI 0%	$25k	$196k
Largest Company end of December 2026?	NVIDIA 56% · Alphabet 1% · Microsoft 0%	$19k	$277k
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap	1.5T+ 38% · No IPO by December 31, 2027 23% · 750B–1T 4%	$17k	$46k
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?	Yes 3% · No 97%	$14k	$60k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes 25% · No 75%	$14k	$16k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 73¢ask 74¢spread 1¢mid 74¢

SizeBid

AskSize

1573¢

74¢387

10071¢

75¢27

1670¢

77¢55

3859¢

80¢4.8k

1051¢

81¢50

2047¢

83¢45

2146¢

84¢140

1.0k45¢

86¢5

4036¢

88¢155

528¢

89¢30

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
Hauchn	Yes	6k	61¢	$2k	$308k
e46m3	Yes	1k			$958k
m3t64 - 815	Yes	996	46¢	$469.58	$71k
rabbit007	Yes	499	64¢	$384.66	$46k
a-mystery	Yes	472	61¢	$654.82	−$0.37
chaosj88	Yes	418	46¢	$262.63	$23k
0x6284…ac6c	Yes	415	70¢	$290	−$88.32
0x43cb…84df	Yes	401			$83k
GenaTheBondKilIer	Yes	339	22¢	$94.94	$41k
0xa49b…7054	Yes	270			$104k
0xa5ef39	No	9k			$0
Nadmi	No	1k	34¢	$340	$156k

Smart-money conviction · Markets

Smart-money conviction

1Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$2k
2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?$3k
3Will GameStop acquire eBay?$3k
4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?$2k
5Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?$1k
6Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1k
7Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?$1k
8Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1k
9Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$1k
10Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$1k