No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 2¢) and lost. Volume $35k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 68% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 3% | $25k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 67% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 2–November 8 12% | $24k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 55% · November 11 13% · November 9 4% | $13k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 56% · Anthropic 39% · OpenAI 5% | $13k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 76% · No 24% | $9k |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 93% · No 7% | $8k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $8k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 71% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 9–November 15 7% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| twinklejch | No | $17.94 |
| manbo3 | No | $4.45 |
| enaich | No | $4.27 |
| fredli | No | $3.55 |
| haveagoodday | No | $2.07 |
| iuyhjgh89 | No | $2.04 |
| peivon98 | No | $1.72 |
| r3fdsfdsg | No | $1.67 |
| Mysaria | No | $1.51 |
| mghjygh | No | $1.16 |
| cbcfghfth | No | $1.03 |
| 6161friends | No | $1.02 |
36 wallets held a position at the close. The 23 biggest winners took $50; the 13 biggest losers gave up $38. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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