No won. Smart money backed Yes (9 ranked wallets, average entry 20¢) and lost. Volume $162k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Contentious-Dinnerdate took +$554 on Yes from 23¢; the biggest loser gave up $4.5k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 22% · OpenAI 3% | $42k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 42% · November 11 22% · November 9 8% | $23k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $12k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 80% · November 16–November 22 14% · November 2–November 8 4% | $11k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? | Yes 26% · No 74% | $9k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $9k |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 14% · No 86% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $554.09 |
| trukla | No | $523.59 |
| AlienXBT | No | $405.88 |
| Olcan | No | $375.22 |
| PavtheGreat | No | $203.68 |
| KingOdysseus | No | $203.43 |
| 0x5007… | No | $174.16 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | $125.75 |
| Whiterose313 | No | $96.57 |
| melonmanm | No | $96.15 |
| vino1234 | No | $88.91 |
| vamosvamos | No | $87.02 |
392 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $4.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $13k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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