No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $475k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 72% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 23–November 29 6% | $26k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 69% · Anthropic 28% · OpenAI 3% | $18k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 53% · Anthropic 37% · OpenAI 5% | $16k |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $13k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 62% · November 16–November 22 14% · November 9–November 15 9% | $11k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $7k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 11 30% · November 10 17% · No release by November 30 10% | $7k |
| Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of November? | MiniMax 54% · Google 44% | $5k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| icantwinanymore | No | $16k |
| carmineeklissi | No | $8k |
| BrownBees | No | $6k |
| Liechti0 | No | $6k |
| fraught | No | $6k |
| rewardbots | No | $5k |
| jacky00 | No | $5k |
| MrBauer | No | $4k |
| metametaman | No | $4k |
| TheDao | No | $3k |
| 0x3e72… | No | $3k |
| Linslav | No | $2k |
637 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $100k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $52k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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