Yes won. Smart money backed No (7 ranked wallets, average entry 26¢) and lost. Volume $495k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Contentious-Dinnerdate took +$6.2k on Yes from 29¢; the biggest loser gave up $6.6k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 22% · OpenAI 3% | $41k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 4% | $12k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $10k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $9k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 10% · 2 2% | $9k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes 90% · No 10% | $8k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $6k |
| rewardbots | Yes | $5k |
| MrBauer | Yes | $2k |
| SteviaDaddy | Yes | $2k |
| BrownBees | Yes | $2k |
| Rumpelstiltskin | Yes | $1k |
| 0x7131… | Yes | $863.74 |
| adh | Yes | $788.95 |
| 0x6078… | Yes | $368.84 |
| Senjor | No | $303.90 |
| maizi0601 | No | $296.71 |
| EatEmAll | No | $281.38 |
440 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $26k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $33k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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