What are the odds for “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?” on Polymarket?

No 94% · Yes 7%, on $34k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.

Who is the smart money on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?”?

The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.

Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Fed & Rates · live

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?

No 94% · Yes 7%. Volume $34k, liquidity $3.7k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
94%
Yes
7%
Volume
$34k
Liquidity
$3.7k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

1 wallets · 120 known shares

Fihdrzgdd
entry 71¢ · all-time −$20k · win 46%

No

4 wallets · 35 known shares

ddaasdf
entry 78¢ · all-time −$3 · win 50%
sadfsadf
entry 64¢ · all-time +$215 · win 50%
bbd113d
entry 71¢ · all-time +$422 · win 50%
ddadsf
entry — · all-time +$341 · win 50%

More Fed & Rates markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?” on Polymarket?: No 94% · Yes 7%, on $34k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?

live

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

93.5%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes12077%
No3523%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Fed & Rates markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase 71% · No change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2%	$131k	$1.9M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?	0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) 1%	$22k	$749k
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?	2 (50 bps) 70% · 1 (25 bps) 28%	$21k	$128k
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?	No change 91% · 25 bps decrease 10%	$10k	$28k
Bank of Canada Decision in December?	No Change 62% · 25 bps increase 38%	$10k	$13k
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November	25 bps increase 94% · No change 6%	$8k	$7k
Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes 14% · No 87%	$7k	$2k
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes 97% · No 3%	$6k	$15k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 6¢ask 7¢spread 1¢mid 6.5¢

SizeBid

AskSize

206¢

7¢519

5255¢

8¢802

2.1k4¢

9¢2.2k

203¢

10¢20

1.1k2¢

27¢50

4.1k1¢

28¢50

36¢15

37¢5

42¢5

58¢20

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
delphilo	Yes	1k	48¢	$482.48	$9k
k7X9mP2qW4	Yes	534			$30k
HDGB	Yes	493	8¢	$39.42	$79k
NeonVector	Yes	311	26¢	$87.96	−$1k
Tallguy2527	Yes	200			−$25k
nellojello	Yes	200	36¢	$72	$11k
enrico-vasaio	Yes	200			$23k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	156			$193k
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	120	71¢	$217.11	−$20k
0x7da9fe	Yes	115	29¢	$32.89	$49.79
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No	2k			$348k
XAE12Archangel	No	753			$183k

Smart-money conviction · Fed & Rates

Smart-money conviction

1Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$16k
2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$3k
3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$2k
4Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?$2k
5Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?$285.05