What are the odds for “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?” on Polymarket?

No 69% · Yes 31%, on $19k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.

Who is the smart money on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?”?

The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.

Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Fed & Rates · live

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?

No 69% · Yes 31%. Volume $19k, liquidity $672. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
69%
Yes
31%
Volume
$19k
Liquidity
$672

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

2 wallets · 120 known shares

Fihdrzgdd
entry — · all-time −$18k · win 46%
SmartBoyBilly
entry 37¢ · all-time −$10k · win 50%

No

2 wallets · 20 known shares

ddd1d43
entry 30¢ · all-time +$590 · win 46%
asdf112d
entry 30¢ · all-time +$543 · win 47%

More Fed & Rates markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?” on Polymarket?: No 69% · Yes 31%, on $19k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?

live

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027? · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

69%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes12086%
No2014%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Fed & Rates markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase 71% · No change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2%	$173k	$1.9M
Fed Decision in January?	No change 72% · 25 bps increase 25% · 25 bps decrease 2%	$26k	$601k
Bank of Canada Decision in December?	No Change 64% · 25 bps increase 35%	$20k	$19k
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?	2 (50 bps) 70% · 1 (25 bps) 28%	$18k	$111k
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes 71% · No 30%	$18k	$200k
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?	0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1%	$12k	$541k
Fed Decision in March?	25 bps increase 47% · No change 46% · 25 bps decrease 4%	$11k	$429k
Bank of England Decision in March?	No Change 62% · 25 bps decrease 14%	$7k	$2k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 29¢ask 33¢spread 4¢mid 31¢

SizeBid

AskSize

16229¢

33¢70

14828¢

34¢204

5027¢

35¢40

5022¢

50¢400

163¢

83¢5

232¢

87¢20

251¢

94¢5

96¢8

97¢11

99¢10k

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
HDGB	Yes	2k	50¢	$1k	$77k
GotGreenWood	Yes	329	50¢	$321.83	−$8k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	119			$193k
financegaaaydog	Yes	103			−$2k
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	100			−$18k
GuyFromTinder	Yes	56	52¢	$196.82	−$99k
ghorrock	Yes	46			$1k
SmartBoyBilly	Yes	20	37¢	$7.41	−$10k
robinsonmaria	Yes	19			$3.97
asdfasd11	Yes	10	58¢	$5.80	$1k
NoSteinNoGate	No	1k	41¢	$924.10	$66k
nj23adsknml3	No	990	38¢	$400.12	$249k

Smart-money conviction · Fed & Rates

Smart-money conviction

1Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$13k
2Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$7k
3Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$3k
4Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?$2k
5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$646.80
6Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?$423.98