Yes won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 83¢) and won. Volume $272k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
perfectnostalgia took +$4.5k on Yes from 81¢; the biggest loser gave up $246.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 77% · No change 22% · 50+ bps decrease 1% | $223k |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 98% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) 0% | $15k |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 76% · No 25% | $12k |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) 75% · 1 (25 bps) 23% | $10k |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 74% · 25 bps increase 19% · 25 bps decrease 4% | $9k |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change 56% · 25 bps increase 36% · 50+ bps decrease 2% | $5k |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | Yes 73% · No 27% | $5k |
| Swiss National Bank Decision in March? | No Change 49% · 25 bps increase 37% | $3k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| perfectnostalgia | Yes | $5k |
| firegold | Yes | $1k |
| 0xa894… | Yes | $432.21 |
| thejoker96 | Yes | $339.75 |
| podairpod | Yes | $291.23 |
| nicholasflamel | Yes | $283.82 |
| adfadfadfgf | Yes | $267.50 |
| Winninghumbly | Yes | $230.37 |
| jtsninja | Yes | $153 |
| Barryvl | Yes | $148.16 |
| Oompa-Loompa | Yes | $143.80 |
| WarshHikingWhale | Yes | $120.28 |
265 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $9.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.8k. The ranked wallets were on the winning side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
Economics's smart-money board and the live whale tape — every wallet by name, with its entries — the free layer under this dashboard.
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