Who is the smart money on “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?”?

The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.

Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Economics · Fed & Rates · live

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

No 99% · Yes 1%. Volume $3.5k, liquidity $37k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
99%
Yes
1%
Volume
$3.5k
Liquidity
$37k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

2 wallets · 292 known shares

lpgb
entry — · all-time +$37k · win 35%
god83743894
entry — · all-time +$47k · win 46%

No

0 wallets

No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet holds this side.

More Fed & Rates markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?” on Polymarket?: No 99% · Yes 1%, on $3.5k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Fed rate decision Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

live

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

98.9%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes292100%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Fed & Rates markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Fed Decision in December?	25 bps increase 69% · No change 28% · 50+ bps increase 2%	$202k	$1.9M
Fed Decision in January?	No change 72% · 25 bps increase 24% · 25 bps decrease 2%	$25k	$653k
Bank of Canada Decision in December?	No Change 64% · 25 bps increase 37%	$21k	$25k
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?	2 (50 bps) 70% · 1 (25 bps) 28%	$18k	$112k
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes 71% · No 30%	$17k	$201k
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?	0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1%	$11k	$552k
Bank of England Decision in March?	No Change 61% · 25 bps decrease 14%	$7k	$1k
Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	Yes 61% · No 39%	$5k	$896.59

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 0.3¢ask 1.9¢spread 1.6¢mid 1.1¢

SizeBid

AskSize

3330.3¢

1.9¢275

5.6k0.2¢

2.3¢512

6.4k0.1¢

2.5¢150

2.6¢291

3.6¢300

4.8¢275

4.9¢50

8.3¢60

8.4¢40

8.8¢400

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
vlospa	Yes	635	3¢	$3.91	−$177.11
0xB16B00B5	Yes	514	0¢	$2.46	$52k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	386			$193k
SC261001	Yes	360	3¢	$10.48	$241.39
Numitus1994	Yes	300			−$34k
lpgb	Yes	291			$37k
rainbowlilies	Yes	200			$171k
acc32	Yes	150			$412.27
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.	Yes	150			−$10.70
WarriorH	Yes	125			$221k
0xa5ef39	No	3k			$0
chessplayer	No	373			−$10k

Smart-money conviction · Fed & Rates

Smart-money conviction

1Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$13k
2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$3k
3Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?$2k
4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$646.80