Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Tech & Science · AI · live

Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?

No 58% · Yes 42%. Smart money leans No (2 ranked wallets, average entry 28¢). Volume $5.8k, liquidity $266. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
58%
Yes
42%
Volume
$5.8k
Liquidity
$266

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

3 wallets · 67 known shares

Fihdrzgdd
entry 40¢ · all-time −$18k · win 46%
ayosussybenny
entry 50¢ · all-time +$6.8k · win 49%
SmartBoyBilly
entry 54¢ · all-time −$10k · win 50%

No

3 wallets · 240 known shares

KimchiCapital
entry 29¢ · all-time +$41k · win 78%
sadfsadf
entry 14¢ · all-time +$288 · win 50%
hithitfar

More AI markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?” on Polymarket?: No 58% · Yes 42%, on $5.8k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?”?: Smart money leans No (2 ranked wallets, average entry 28¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?

live

Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of a… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

58%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

No24078%
Yes6722%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

AI markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?	Google 53% · Anthropic 37% · OpenAI 6%	$58k	$592k
Which company has the best AI model end of November?	Google 62% · Anthropic 33% · OpenAI 2%	$33k	$45k
When will Gemini Carbon be released?	November 9–November 15 60% · November 16–November 22 16% · November 2–November 8 10%	$22k	$12k
Gemini Carbon released on...?	November 10 26% · November 11 23% · November 3 11%	$14k	$10k
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes 7% · No 93%	$14k	$20k
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes 74% · No 26%	$9k	$8k
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes 74% · No 26%	$7k	$6k
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes 79% · No 21%	$6k	$10k

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 29¢ask 59¢spread 30¢mid 44¢

SizeBid

AskSize

529¢

59¢128

2028¢

60¢90

727¢

61¢50

5026¢

63¢5

4017¢

66¢51

4416¢

67¢60

4013¢

78¢40

3012¢

79¢40

2110¢

87¢40

164¢

88¢40

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
0x8df9…468c	Yes	298	61¢	$181.60	$26k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	64			$193k
cigarettes	Yes	63			−$71k
X-Rabbit.Sezu	Yes	60			$37k
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	45	40¢	$41.85	−$18k
S888	Yes	37			$15k
0x04b3…1b7e	Yes	20	54¢	$10.80	$5k
alebale	Yes	20	42¢	$8.40	$2k
ayosussybenny	Yes	20	50¢	$10	$7k
0x7aa4ed	Yes	4	41¢	$6.53	−$1k
KimchiCapital	No	227	29¢	$65.45	$41k
youtube-trader	No	100			−$5k

Smart-money conviction · AI

Smart-money conviction

1Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?$3k
2Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?$2k
3Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?$1k
4Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?$363.57
5Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?$658.72
6Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?$258.40
7Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?$292.19
8Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$320.96