Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $1.0k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
aschenbrenner took +$104 on Yes from 62¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $3.5M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)? | 0.0%–0.8% 31% · -0.8%–0.0% 22% · 0.8%–1.6% 19% | $5k |
| Mexico Annual Inflation 2026 | 4.00% to 4.49% 47% · 3.50% to 3.99% 35% · 3.00% to 3.49% 6% | $5k |
| October Inflation US - Annual | 3.7% 94% · 3.3% 0% · 3.4% 0% | $5k |
| What will the median home value in the US be on December 31? | $403K - $407K 39% · $407K - $411K 34% · <$403K 27% | $5k |
| South Africa Annual Inflation 2026 | >5.0% 59% · 4.7-5.0% 29% | $4k |
| U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 | 3.5–3.9% 55% · 4.0-4.4% 17% · 3.0–3.4% 17% | $4k |
| US recession by end of 2027? | Yes 28% · No 72% | $3k |
| Core PCE YoY - October 2026 | 3.2% 35% · 3.3% 28% | $3k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| aschenbrenner | Yes | $104.13 |
| LllLH | Yes | $38.73 |
| PERP-RFQ | Yes | $29.26 |
| fresh | Yes | $2.84 |
| jensond | No | −$1.82 |
| hgjuykfg | No | −$0.91 |
6 wallets held a position at the close. The 4 biggest winners took $175; the 2 biggest losers gave up $3. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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