No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 23¢) and lost. Volume $19k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
87 wallets held a position at the close. The 35 biggest winners took $206; the 52 biggest losers gave up $599. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 53% · Anthropic 37% · OpenAI 6% | $45k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 62% · Anthropic 33% · OpenAI 2% | $33k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 60% · November 16–November 22 16% · November 2–November 8 10% | $22k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 26% · November 11 23% · November 3 11% | $14k |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $14k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 74% · No 26% | $9k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes 67% · No 34% | $7k |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026? | Yes 74% · No 26% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | No | $55.76 |
| 0x96bf… | No | $17.00 |
| 0xd55a… | No | $15.88 |
| 0xb6a1… | No | $15.13 |
| HHR-TEST1 | No | $11.77 |
| g6j3zpru8au4jci41u4m4hk4 | No | $11.59 |
| C.PM | No | $10.20 |
| 0xfd2c… | No | $7.54 |
| gonnakilmyslf | No | $7.48 |
| pppnn | No | $6.83 |
| Carabao | No | $6.02 |
| noreasapa | No | $5.06 |