No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 15¢) and lost. Volume $5.7k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 66% · November 16–November 22 12% · November 2–November 8 10% | $30k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 54% · Anthropic 37% · OpenAI 5% | $19k |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 65% · Anthropic 29% · OpenAI 2% | $15k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes 96% · No 4% | $15k |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $14k |
| When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? | November 2–November 8 63% · November 16–November 22 13% · November 9–November 15 6% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 11 29% · November 10 20% · No release by November 30 10% | $8k |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| KimchiCapital | No | $126.51 |
| pppnn | No | $18.40 |
| 0xf93c… | No | $16.76 |
| 0xe7ad… | No | $13.19 |
| haveagoodday | No | $7.82 |
| SpringlyFawl | No | $6.38 |
| iutwpfal | No | $6.31 |
| 0x5f3e… | No | $5.08 |
| 0x466a… | No | $4.32 |
| hkkalex | Yes | $4.28 |
| rubby1337 | No | $4.01 |
| mapleggg | No | $3.24 |
37 wallets held a position at the close. The 19 biggest winners took $233; the 18 biggest losers gave up $210. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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