No won. Smart money backed Yes (8 ranked wallets, average entry 100¢) and lost. Volume $238k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
haskfwqe took +$3 on No from 100¢; the biggest loser gave up $76.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 76% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 2% | $41k |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $17k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $17k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 64% · Anthropic 31% · OpenAI 4% | $13k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $9k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 10% · 2 2% | $9k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 44% · November 11 24% | $8k |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes 89% · No 11% | $8k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| haskfwqe | No | $3.26 |
| merod | No | $1.70 |
| Mysaria | No | $1.62 |
| bubakastorskiy | No | $1.33 |
| kitty07 | No | $0.97 |
| FyIMan | No | $0.66 |
| rioopiak | No | $0.54 |
| doublesafe | No | $0.52 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | No | $0.50 |
| 7Embers | Yes | −$75.98 |
| 0x0802… | Yes | −$27.74 |
| tmleafs | Yes | −$20.55 |
38 wallets held a position at the close. The 9 biggest winners took $11; the 29 biggest losers gave up $214. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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