Yes won. Smart money backed No (8 ranked wallets, average entry 3¢) and lost. Volume $650k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
LupedeZh took +$1.4k on Yes from 52¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.2k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| LupedeZh | Yes | $1k |
| 101010101011 | Yes | $1k |
| Kati.shi | Yes | $796.35 |
| Investnow | Yes | $679.41 |
| naperiggers | Yes | $502.50 |
| Seldon26 | No | $424.82 |
| CapitanGrow | Yes | $424.18 |
| willsom | Yes | $267.85 |
| bylaw | Yes | $241.93 |
| 0xb5fc…4b6f | Yes | $197.60 |
| RodneyRamos8136 | Yes | $181.98 |
| MichelleMccormick5967 | Yes | $171.86 |
458 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $8.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $9.2k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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